The Tortoise and the Bondi

And the moon

Good Afternoon:

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Yesterday on #DogShirtTV, the estimable Anna Bower came on the show to discuss Pam Bondi’s firing and Trump administration non-compliance with court orders. Also, today’s #BeastOfTheDay. It is actually rare that we devote an episode of the show to the #BeastOfTheDay, but hey, it happens sometimes. And today’s beast is special:

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Yesterday On Lawfare

Compiled by the estimable Marissa Wang

Revenge of Rumsfeld’s Fourth Quadrant—Closing the Strait of Hormuz

Herb Lin argues that the Trump administration’s piecemeal response to the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz reflects a failure to prepare for a well-known risk of the U.S.-Israeli joint strikes. Using the concept of “unknown knowns,” Lin describes how a long-anticipated scenario and its consequences were not translated into actionable plans, leading to the delays and improvisation seen in the U.S.’s actions when the closure occurred.

The administration judged that preventing an Iranian nuclear breakout and destroying its conventional military capabilities justified accepting the risk of Hormuz’s closure. The strategic calculus leading to that judgment could have been defensible. What is not defensible is accepting that risk without maintaining operational readiness for the consequences. Risk acceptance demands contingency preparation; it does not excuse its absence.

Security Versus Interoperability: Real Tension or False Dichotomy?

Daji Landis explores the merits of technology companies’ claims of security risks to push back against interoperability antitrust regulations, and proposes an analytical framework to strike a better balance between security and antitrust interests.

The recent introduction of the Digital Markets Act in the European Union kicked off a series of proceedings involving mandated interoperation. As Apple described it, “The basic idea is that developers should have access to the same tools in iOS and iPadOS as Apple, in order to ensure a level playing field.” The company pushed back on these remedies in a public-facing document. Interoperability, Apple argued, “would put users at risk, requiring them to open their devices—and their most sensitive data—to companies with a track record of violating their privacy.” Similarly, in the U.S. context, Google stated that “[t]he [interoperation] requirement … effectively requir[es] Google to endorse stores that might be full of harmful content, ranging from malware that can scam or extort users to pornography and hate speech,” in reference to the requirement that Google allow third-party app stores.

Technology companies are right that the potential for harm exists. But does this mean regulators should drop their antitrust efforts because of the grave security harm that Google and Apple argue will result? Not necessarily.

Myth of the AI Oracle

In the latest edition of Lawfare’s Foreign Policy Essay Series, Joel Brenner explains that despite the increasingly widespread implementation of artificial intelligence (AI) in the national security apparatus, AI may not be capable of adequately responding to intelligence surprises due to the limitations of data and the nature of AI reasoning.

AI is capable of perfect recall, produces excellent summaries of available information, makes situational assessments almost instantly, and accelerates decision-making. It does so by expanding human capability in three dimensions: speed, scale, and complexity. But there are severe practical limits on its ability to make predictive judgments in complex environments. There are also equally severe limitations on the ability of computers of any level of power to do so. Understanding the reasons for these limits makes it less likely that users of this technology (or rather, technologies) will delude themselves about what it can and cannot do.

Podcasts

On Lawfare Daily, I sit down with Anna Bower, Roger Parloff, Katherine Pompilio, and Molly Roberts to discuss Lawfare’s new database tracking government non-compliance in immigration habeas corpus cases, the firing of Pam Bondi as attorney general, legal challenges to President Trump’s new elections integrity executive order, and more.

Announcements

As introduced in a recent Lawfare piece, the team at Lawfare has compiled a database of 300 cases of government non-compliance with federal court orders in immigration habeas corpus cases. The publicly available database compiles hundreds of dockets and filings into an easily searchable format and will continue to be updated as new cases arise. Check out the database here.

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Today’s #BeastOfTheDay, as discussed on yesterday’s show, is Jonathan the tortoise, seen here (left) in 1886:

Source

And seen here, with proof of life, last Thursday:

Source

In honor of today’s Beast, do not donate cryptocurrency to accounts claiming to be veterinarians on X. Don’t make donations using crypto ever. Don’t make any transactions based on information on X. It’s scammers all the way down.

And if you want to know what the heck we’re talking about, check out yesterday’s show. All is explained.