Good Morning:
The sunflowers we planted across the street from the Russian embassy are starting to come in.
I will be plating about 70 more this weekend.
Yesterday on #DogShirtTV, we started off with some old Swedish men playing Bach on the nickleharpa. Then the estimable
came on to tell us that the topic she was planning to discuss was actually fake news. So the estimable and the estimable Katsiaryna Shmatsina took over the episode to talk about Slavic national identities and repression in Belarus:Today On Lawfare
Compiled by the estimable Olivia Manes
Israel’s Shin Bet Saga, Continued
Amichai Cohen and Yuval Shany outline the most recent developments in the ongoing dispute between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the High Court of Justice over the government’s decision to dismiss Ronen Bar, the head of the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet). Cohen and Shany explain that the Court’s judgement that the dismissal was unlawful despite Bar’s recent resignation—and Netanyahu’s subsequent announcement of a new Shin Bet head—place Israel’s judicial system and government on a potential collision course, risking a constitutional crisis.
The ongoing legal and political battle surrounding the identity of the head of the Shin Bet is really a battle over the professional independence of the agency from political interference. The HCJ and Israel’s attorney general have both taken a clear stance on the matter, acting to block the prime minister from politicizing the office of the head of the Shin Bet and transforming it into a position of loyalty. Still, by appearing to ignore their positions and pushing for the appointment of General Zini—despite the prime minister's personal conflict of interest—Netanyahu has demonstrated an appetite for exacerbating Israel’s legal and political crisis. Indeed, Bar’s dismissal saga appears to be part of a larger plan to undermine the independence of democratic gatekeepers in Israel, including the attorney general. There is a possibility that in the near future, the very authority of the Court to block appointments could be put into question—heralding a full-fledged constitutional crisis, in which competing claims of public authority are raised by the government and the legal system.
U.S. Funding Cuts Risk Jeopardizing Counter-Islamic State Operations
Devorah Margolin examines how recent funding cuts, including the dismantling of the United States Agency for International Development, risk undermining efforts to counter the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Margolin explains that the funding freeze affects a central element of the mission—preventing a new generation of Islamic State militants—with implications for the operation of detention centers and repatriation and reintegration efforts.
There is no question that the U.S. has shouldered the bulk of the military and financial responsibility for the ever-evolving counter-Islamic State mission in the Middle East. Yet the counter-Islamic State mission today is not limited to kinetic counter-terrorism alone; it seeks to combat the “Islamic State at large,” “Islamic State in detention,” and “Islamic State the next generation.” Thus, U.S. cuts to programs focusing on “Islamic State the next generation” (specifically Al-Hol and Roj detention camps), without proper consideration of how to fill these gaps, prove highly problematic. The deprioritization of countering the next Islamic State generation, while cost-saving in the short term, will be detrimental in the long term—affecting the stability of Syria and posing far-reaching consequences for repatriation and reintegration of detained individuals.
Tackling the Proliferation of Cyber Intrusion Capabilities
Alexandra Paulus explains that while the Pall Mall Process—an initiative bringing together states and non-state actors to address the proliferation of commercial cyber intrusion capabilities—has taken important steps to tackle the problem, it falls short in several key respects. Paulus offers three suggestions moving forward, including broadening the initiative’s scope, ensuring implementation through accountability mechanisms, and developing a code of practice for industry.
At the same time, the framing of the Pall Mall Process remains problematic. While organizers have focused on the “responsible use” of CCICs, the metrics for responsible use remain unclear. Additionally, this approach may, paradoxically, facilitate proliferation (explained below). Finally, it is unclear to what extent government action can meaningfully shape the formal market rather than push it underground.
Podcasts
On Lawfare Daily, Quinta Jurecic moderates a panel discussion at Fordham Law School’s Transatlantic AI and Law institute, featuring panelists Joseph Cox, a journalist and co-founder of 404 Media; Orly Lobel, the Warren Distinguished Professor of Law and founding director of the Center for Employment and Labor Policy (CELP) at the University of San Diego; Aziz Huq, the Frank and Bernice J. Professor at the University of Chicago Law School; and James Grimmelmann, the Tessler Family Professor of Digital and Information Law at Cornell Tech and Cornell Law School. The panel discussed the connection between technology and democratic backsliding, both historically and in the present day.
On Rational Security, Scott R. Anderson sits down with Anastasiia Lapatina, Eric Ciaramella, and Alex Zerden to talk through the week’s big national security and foreign policy news, including the U.S.’s widespread exceptions to Syrian sanctions programs, Ukraine’s drone attack deep into Russian territory over the weekend, and two different federal courts’ decision to enjoin Trump’s tariffs last week.
Today’s #BeastOfTheDay is a mama bird and a baby bird going flop:
In honor of today’s Beast, don’t try to model perfection for your children. Model recovery instead.
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