Good Morning:
Well, the Israeli election returns are more or less in. Still got some to go, but we know the shape of things. And let’s just say the results mean things will suck a little less. No, it’s not clear that anyone can form a government. And no, it’s not clear that the Bibi Netanyahu won’t remain prime minister. And no, it’s not clear that Israel is not headed straight back to new elections in which he will prevail. And yes, it’s depressing that after all Israel has been through the last few years, the support of the right-wing bloc has held up as well as it has. That said, a decisive majority of Israelis voted to oust Netanyahu and his clique of ultra orthodox and religious nationalists. And the opposition, including two parties representing Israel’s large Palestinian majority, have leverage for the first time in four years. That’s no small thing—especially if the opposition leadership can develop the cojones to use the leverage the electorate has given it.
Monday on #DogShirtTV, the estimable Jonathan Rauch wanted me to give him an Israeli election preview, so that’s what we did—with Eve Gaumond:
Tuesday on #DogShirtTV, the estimable Molly Roberts came on to discuss Trump’s latest attacks on his favorite targets:
And yesterday on #DogShirtTV, the inevitable follow-up to Monday’s election preview, featuring the estimable Lior Tepper:
Recently On Lawfare
Compiled by the estimable Athena Smith
Chemical Security Is National Security
Gregory D. Koblentz argues that the U.S.’s failure to pay the full amount it owes this year to the Chemical Weapons Convention could jeopardize programs to halt the use of chemical weapons around the world. Koblentz states that the U.S. should deliver its full contribution immediately and outlines how the Organization for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons cannot continue to destroy weapons in Syria or defend Ukraine against Russia’s use of toxic chemicals without its regular budget.
The OPCW’s financial crisis threatens the ability of the organization to pursue its vital mission of preventing the proliferation and use of chemical weapons around the world. In addition to endangering current operations overseeing the destruction of chemical weapons in Syria, the OPCW’s assistance to Ukraine to defend it against Russia’s use of toxic chemicals on the battlefield may have to be curtailed and the agency would be unable to launch new missions such as investigating recent revelations about Sudan’s production and use of chemical weapons.
A Rejoinder to Healey and Snyder: Engaging on Stability
Michael P. Fischerkeller, Emily O. Goldman, and Richard J. Harknett write a response to Jay Healey and Jack Snyder’s Sept. 2, 2026 piece, “Persistent Engagement and the Illusion of Cyber Equilibrium,” and argue that Healey and Snyder misrepresented cyber persistence theory as a theory of offense in which a country simply exploits an adversary’s cyber vulnerabilities. The authors note that Healey and Snyder failed to explain their definition of cyber stability and incorrectly held that cyber behavior is driven by factors outside of the cyber strategic environment.
Overall, the Healey-Snyder essay is dangerously one-sided in its description of CPT as offensive in logic and prescription. That is simply inaccurate, and a full reading of our book, “Cyber Persistence Theory: Redefining National Security in Cyberspace” (2022), and many of our articles substantiate the critical role of securing one’s own networks and digital assets through proactive anticipation of exploitation that, when translated into practice, is primarily defensive in character. Distorting the theory’s logic is dangerous. It undermines accurate communication with allies and adversaries alike that is necessary for stabilizing dynamics to occur. Bottom line: CPT does not prescribe aggressive, offensive, and escalatory cyber behavior.
Can Hungary Derussify Its Electric Power Sector?
Elek Krizsán and Thomas N. Russo outline how Hungary deepened its dependence on Russian natural gas and nuclear fuel under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and analyze the feasibility of plans under current Prime Minister Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party to diversify its energy sources. Krizsán and Russo maintain that Hungary has fallen into import dependence due to both a lack of natural resources and by political choice, and the new government needs to balance derussification, diversification, and decarbonization.
Hungary can derussify, diversify, and decarbonize its power sector at once, but only by treating nuclear power, not gas, as the keystone of its Russian dependence: By correctly sequencing nuclear fuel supply diversification, gas sourcing, and domestic low-carbon generation, Hungary can overcome the political incentives that entrenched that dependence.
How Judge Reyes Became the Lorax
Molly Roberts examines litigation in the D.C. Preservation League v. Department of Interior, in which D.C. District Judge Ana C. Reyes issued a preliminary injunction preventing the National Parks Service from cutting down trees—after more than 500 were taken down—at the East Potomac Golf Links course. Roberts outlines Reyes’s frustration in potentially being misled by the government and how this fight reveals the difficult position the courts find themselves in when they are unable to trust the Department of Justice.
What’s perhaps most striking about the history of D.C. Preservation League is that Reyes indicated throughout that the government might well win. Initially, she didn’t believe there had been final agency action that even justified her involvement. She was skeptical that the government, assuming it followed all the rules, couldn’t do what it wanted with the course.
The U.S.-Taiwan ART’s Export Control Puzzle
William Yuen Yee argues that the U.S.-Taiwan Agreement on Reciprocal Trade contains a commitment to align Taiwan’s export controls with U.S. rules. Yee notes that this could be addressed if Taiwan expanded the category of items it restricts for import to mainland China or by amending export restriction on artificial intelligence (AI) chips into its Foreign Trade Act and argues that either way, the agreement’s ambiguity may benefit both parties.
Although the United States has already signed ARTs with 10 economies as of October 2026, none quite match the depth of the export control alignment commitments that Taiwan has undertaken. While the agreement states that Taiwan “shall align” its export controls with U.S. rules, what that “alignment” looks like in practice is unclear. Many in Taiwan recognize the flaws in Taiwan’s existing export control framework but differently interpret the legal commitments that Taipei must undertake to achieve alignment under the ART.
Podcasts
On Monday’s Lawfare Daily, I sit down with Anna Bower, Eric Columbus, Roger Parloff, Molly Roberts, and Loren Voss to discuss developments in the litigation over the Trump administration’s plan for the East Potomac Park and Arch, the 9th Circuit ruling that President Trump exceeded his authority in the deployment of the National Guard in L.A., legal challenges to the Trump administration’s various actions surrounding the election, and more.
On Tuesday’s Lawfare Daily, Julia Curlee sits down with Cole Bucy, Nate Swanson, and Ariane Tabatabai to discuss the Iran war eight months in and the Trump administration’s likely strategy in the Middle East after the midterms.
On Scaling Laws, Kevin Frazier sits down with Nik Blosser to discuss Oregon’s approach to adopting and governing AI, including Oregon’s Medicaid information chatbot and its public disclosure card; Gov. Tina Kotek’s recent executive order on frontier-model procurement; the limits of state expertise and purchasing power; and the AI issues likely to shape Oregon’s 2027 legislative session.
Today’s #BeastOfTheDay is the beaver, seen here engaging in civil disobedience to protest against beaver discrimination:
A sign installed to warn the public about damage caused by beavers has been destroyed by the beavers themselves, according to the Polish foresters who erected it.
The incident was reported in a post on social media by the forestry district of Lubliniec in southern Poland, which shared photos of the sign, which read “Warning! Damage caused by beavers”. The wooden post it was displayed on had been destroyed in an apparent beaver attack…
Beavers were once almost hunted to extinction in Poland. By 1928, it was estimated that only 235 remained in the country. However, thanks to postwar efforts to reintroduce the animals into the Polish wilderness, the beaver population has grown and is currently estimated at around 150,000.
Ecologists note that beavers play an important role in tackling drought by retaining water through the dams they build. Those dams also create “oases of biodiversity”, notes the state water agency PGW WP.
In honor of today’s Beast, find a MAGA ad and shred it with your teeth.