Fun With the Trump Jury Questionnaire

Forty-two questions for the prospective jurors in the Trump criminal case.

Good Evening:

I cannot confirm or deny that I am having this line drawing custom cut into a pottery stamp the size of a postage stamp for some mischievous purpose of my own.

I also cannot confirm or deny that I am doing the same with this one:

I will say this: If I had ordered such things, and I’m not saying I did, and if they were currently being shipped across the ocean from merry old England, and I’m not saying they are, and if I did thus expect them in a few days, and I’m not saying I do, and if I were itching to try them out, and I’m not saying I am, and if some #DogShirtDaily readers guessed in the comments what they are for, I would be suitably impressed—and said person might actually win a prize involving said pottery stamps.

Just saying.

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Don’t look now, but there’s actually been some positive movement in the polling over the last few weeks. Since November, former President Trump has been running ahead of President Biden by anywhere from about one percent in the national polling average to a bit more than three percent. Over the last few weeks, that lead has all but disappeared. The change, as you see from the chart below is largely a function of Biden moving up in the polls, not Trump falling—though there’s been a little bit of that too.

Don’t read too much into this. The polls right now are pretty noisy. There aren’t that many of them, and a lot of the ones we do have are not the highest quality polls. So it’s certainly possible that the apparent movement is more apparent than real.

But I don’t think so.

The reason is that the movement is exactly what I expected to see based on the analysis of the people I trust most in this area. Folks like Sarah Longwell have been saying for quite some time now that voters really had not yet internalized the fact that we are actually facing a Trump-Biden rematch and that they expected significant adjustment in the polls as that reality settles in.

If you look at the period of Biden’s climb against Trump, it really does coincide with the period in which Democrats realized that he really is their candidate and Republicans realized that Nikky Haley was a fantasy and that their party standard bearer would once again be Trump.

For what it’s worth, what I call the Longwell Hypothesis is easy to test. If Sarah is right, the shape of the race should continue to resolve over the next two months toward the shape of the race four—and eight—years ago. That is, Democrats should start behaving in polls very much like Democrats; Republicans should behave very much like Republicans; Trump voters should look like Trump voters; and Biden voters should start looking once again like Biden voters. In other words, as with the races both in 2016 and in 2020, we should start seeing a steady but not overwhelming Democratic lead.

This will not mean, to be sure, that Biden will necessarily win. After all, Hillary Clinton led in national polls—and won the popular vote—but didn’t win, and the race in 2020 was close. But it will mean, if it’s right, that the fundamental contours of the electorate have not changed all that much.

That alone would be reassuring.

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Today’s #BeastOfTheDay showdown: Sea Snake v. Moray Eel.

oceansnation

A post shared by @oceansnation

You know you wanna know who’s gonna win.

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Trump Trial Diary, April 10, 2024

Okay kids. Let’s have some fun with the juror questionnaire that’s going to be given to around 500 prospective jurors in New York on Monday. How would you answer these questions, and do you think your answers would get you on the first jury to sit in criminal judgment of a former President of these United States?

Here is the questionnaire itself verbatim with my annotations: