Conclave Bracket?

The internet will provide

Good Morning:

On Monday, February 10. Before that, restaurant salads were just fine.

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A reminder that we have cut the price of #DogShirtDaily, so you can subscribe to a #CutRateDogShirt:

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For those of you who are missing March Madness, you’ll be pleased to know that a very reputable outfit called Bracket Fights has made available a conclave bracket. I woke up this morning wondering if anyone had made a conclave bracket, figuring I would make one myself if not. But no, the internet had beaten me to it:

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Yesterday on #DogShirtTV, I went in without a guest, a co-host, or a plan. But it’s a revolution in morning television, so we had a show anyway.

The estimable Lior Tepper joined us from the Collegium to deliver an update on the trial of Bibi Netanyahu in Israel and his efforts to sublimate the internal security services. Then the estimable Eve Gaumond and the estimable Alicia Wanless showed up to discuss Trump's meeting with the Canadian Prime Minister, and the estimable Marichka Hlyten explained why there were Stalinist marchers in DC last weekend:

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The Situation

In yesterday’s “The Situation” column, I explain how individuals and companies involved in President Donald Trump’s cryptocurrency scams risk violating two federal criminal statutes and emphasize the importance of promising future enforcement to deter their participation now:

Rather, it’s about the people who are actively pumping things “of value” to him through a company he is known to own, and who are doing so with specific policy goals in mind. They are subjecting themselves to significant risk under the law. Perhaps not now, while the guy they're trying to enrich is in charge of the Justice Department that would be responsible for prosecuting these crimes. But, if I were their lawyer, I would point out that crimes have statutes of limitations—and these ones run longer than this presidency.

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Today On Lawfare

Compiled by the estimable Caroline Cornett

The Courts Versus Trump, Then and Now

Quinta Jurecic explores the relationship between the courts and the Trump administration during its first and second terms. Jurecic highlights that while judges struggled with deference to executive actions during Trump’s first term, they are now increasingly skeptical of the government and more inclined to accept that it is acting in bad faith:

From 2017 through 2021, courts wrestled with these issues but never managed to resolve them in a satisfactory or systematic manner. Now, with the second Trump administration flirting with a far more confrontational approach to the courts than the first administration ever did, the question of how the judiciary should engage an aberrant presidency has only grown in urgency and importance. Judges during the first Trump term had to weigh how to handle actions that might well have been plausible uses of executive power if carried out by any other president but were tarred by Trump’s involvement. Now, during the first few months of the second Trump administration, the problem is how to handle actions that no modern executive other than Trump would ever have dreamed of.

Reshaping Turkish Politics: Erdogan’s Bet on a Kurdish Opposition?

Loqman Radpey discusses Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s attempts to strategically realign Turkish politics by shifting the Kurdish vote from the Republican People’s Party (CHP)—which needs Kurdish support to win the 2028 elections—to the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM):

Erdoğan sees DEM as a more manageable opposition compared to CHP because it lacks the broad national appeal and institutional strength of the CHP. While the pro-Kurdish party has a strong base in the Kurdish majority regions and among Kurds in Istanbul and Ankara, its influence remains geographically and demographically limited, making it less likely to pose a direct challenge to Erdoğan’s rule. By subtly legitimizing DEM and allowing it to operate within a controlled political space, Erdoğan can present a façade of democratic pluralism while ensuring that the opposition remains fragmented.

Podcasts

On Lawfare Daily, Olivia Manes sits down with Alexis Loeb to talk about the work of the recently dismantled Kleptocracy Asset Recovery Initiative, why it mattered for national security, and the broader administrative trend towards non-enforcement of corruption:

On Rational Security, Anastasiia Lapatina and I join Scott R. Anderson to talk through the week’s big national security news, including the dismissal of Mike Waltz as national security adviser, the recently signed United States-Ukraine minerals agreement, and Russia’s plan to export natural gas from the Arctic to China:

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Today’s #BeastOfTheDay is the green heron, seen here demonstrating patience and guile:

Video Source

In honor of today’s Beast, consider whether your current snack might serve as bait for a better snack.